Shares of 10%-Yielding Hafnia Ltd Up 78% Since April
October 31, 2025
Hafnia Ltd Stock Has 60%+ Upside Potential
In the spotlight today is Hafnia Ltd (NYSE:HAFN).
The outlook for crude oil may have taken a hit of late, but the outlook for marine shipping companies remains robust. That’s due in part to strong product demand, low global inventories, improving refining margins, and high export volumes that have generally supported the tanker market.
More broadly, the outlook for the product tanker supply remains positive, with limited newbuild activity planned for 2025. Moreover, thanks to an aging global fleet, vessel scrapping has started, with many vessels built in the early 2000s now reaching scrapping age.
The recent European Union sanctions on Russia have further tightened tanker supply, potentially pushing more vessels into the shadow fleet. A total of approximately 800 tankers have been sanctioned by the third quarter of 2025. The ban on products refined from Russian crude oil should also contribute to market inefficiencies, expand trade routes, and increase tonne-miles.
For the rest of 2025, the product market is well-positioned for a strong fall and winter season. And those tailwinds are great news for Hafnia Ltd.
Operating a fleet of over 250 vessels, Singapore-based Hafnia Ltd is the largest operator of product and chemical tankers in the world. (Source: “Why Invest In Hafnia,” Hafnia Ltd, last accessed October 23, 2025.)
The majority of its vessels operate in the spot market, primarily through pools of similarly sized vessels, allowing Hafnia to maximize fleet utilization and revenues and cyclical freight rate recoveries.
The company transports vegetable oil, clean and dirty refined oil products, and easy chemicals to oil, chemical, trading, and utility companies.
If you’re not familiar with Hafnia, you’re not alone. HAFN only began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in April 2024, but it started its journey on the Oslo Stock Exchange (OSE) in November 2020.
Second-Quarter Earnings Beat
For the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, Hafnia reported total operating revenue of $340.3 million and net profit of $75.3 million, or $0.15 per share. (Source: “Q2 2025 Investor Presentation,” Hafnia Ltd, May 15, 2025.)
Time charter equivalent (TCE) earnings were $231.2 million, resulting in an average TCE of $24,452 per day. That’s up from the first-quarter average TCE of $22,992 per day.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) was $134.2 million.
As of August 15, 2025, which is around the time the company announced its second-quarter results, 75% of its third-quarter earning days were covered at an average of $25,395 per day, and 48% of the earning days for the remainder of the year are covered at $25,158 per day. Both daily earnings are well above the first and second quarters.
Commenting on Hafnia’s first-quarter results, Mikael Skov, Hafnia’s chief executive officer, said:
“As we conclude the first half of 2025, we are encouraged by the ongoing strength of the product tanker market, driven by strong demand and solid fundamentals. I believe Hafnia is well-positioned for the future. Our young, modern fleet and recent refinancing give us a strong stance amid market fluctuations, as well as the flexibility to pursue new opportunities.”
Q2 Dividend Increased to $0.1210/Share
On the dividend front, Hafnia announced that it raised its dividend payout ratio (the percentage of earnings paid to shareholders as dividends) from 70% to 80%, when its net loan-to-value (LTV) is between 20% to 30%. When the net LTV falls below 20%, the company will raise the dividend payout ratio to 90%. At the end of the second quarter, its net LTV ratio was 24.1%.
This resulted in the company distributing a total of $60.3 million, or $0.1210 per share in quarterly dividends, or $0.63 per share on an annual basis for a forward dividend yield of 10.2%. (Source: “Dividend History,” Hafnia Ltd, last accessed October 24, 2025.)
HAFN Stock Up 78% Since April
Since being listed on the NYSE, HAFN stock has done, for the most part, quite well; hitting an all-time high of $8.99 per share on May 31, 2024. Shipping stocks hit some rough water in the last quarter on geopolitical tensions and weak demand from China.
The broader market hit further turbulence in early 2025 when President Donald Trump announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and then again in early April, when the president unveiled his global tariffs.
Fortunately, HAFN stock has rebounded since hitting a 52-week low of $3.47 in April. On October 23, HAFN stock hit an intra-day high of $6.425 per share, for a short-term gain of 78% over its April lows.
Big moves, but HAFN stock still needs to climb four percent to match its 52-week high of $6.43 and roughly 23% to hit its May 2024 record high of $7.625.
Conservative Wall Street thinks it will hit fresh highs over the coming quarters, with analysts providing a 12-month share price forecast range of $7.38 to $10.00 per share. This points to potential upside of 19.5% to 62%.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Lowdown on Hafnia Ltd
Hafnia Ltd is a marine shipping stock reporting consistently solid financial results, which helps support its reliable ultra-high-yield distribution.
After reporting another solid quarter, management noted that this positive momentum has continued into the third quarter, with sustained growth in trade volumes and tonne-miles. This has been fueled by strong underlying global demand and improved refining margins, which have juiced the spot market.
To that end, the bearish U.S. Energy Information Administration (IEA) is forecasting a 0.7-million-barrel-per-day increase in global oil demand in 2025 to 103.7 million barrels per day.
That’s good news for HAFN stock and its reliable dividend. It’s also encouraging for the 194 institutions that hold 30.51% of Hafnia shares. (Source: “Hafnia Limited (HAFN),” Yahoo! Finance, last accessed October 24, 2025.)
Some of the biggest institutional holders are Acadian Asset Management, LLC, Arrowstreet Capital, LP, Vanguard Group Inc, and JP Morgan Chase & Company. An even larger 45.08% of shares are held by insiders. The high insider ownership should entice management to deliver stronger results.
