Ardagh Metal Packaging SA: Shares of 11%-Yielder Spike on Strong Q1
May 16, 2025
Outlook for AMBP Remains Robust
In this economic environment, it’s a good idea to look beyond our borders. Global economies are evolving to form new trade relationships, so places like Europe, Canada, and Asia could provide solid growth opportunities. And that’s where Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (NYSE:AMBP) comes in.
Based in Luxembourg, Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is a leading global supplier of infinitely recyclable, sustainable, metal beverage cans and ends to brand owners. A subsidiary of sustainable packaging business Ardagh Group, Ardagh Metal Packaging is a leading industry player with the #2 market position in Europe and #3 share in North America and Brazil. It also holds the #2 position in the global glass industry. (Source: “Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.,” Ardagh Metal Packaging SA, April 24, 2025.)
The company, which operates 23 production facilities in nine countries, has annual sales of approximately $5.0 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $600.0 million. Of Ardagh Metal Packaging’s total global beverage can sales, 47% comes from North America, 43% from Europe, and 10% from Brazil.
Its customers are made up of a wide variety of leading beverage producers serving categories such as beer, carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks, hard seltzers, juices, pre-mixed cocktails, teas, sparkling waters, and wine. This includes industry juggernauts like Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO) and Anheuser-Busch InBev SA (NYSE:BUD).
Thanks to secular (long-term) tailwinds, the outlook for Ardagh Metals remains bright, too.
In 2024, the food and beverage metal cans market was estimated at $50.42 billion. It’s projected to hit $70.72 billion by 2029, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of seven percent. (Source: “Food and Beverage Metal Cans Market,” MarketsAndMarkets.com, last accessed May 7, 2025.)
Meanwhile, a significant amount of metal, including packaging, ends up in landfills. This is in spite of the strong value of scrap metal. Ardagh Metal has a solution for both issues…
Ardagh Metal Packaging.
Strong Q1 Results Outperformed Guidance
Ardagh Metal Packaging kicked off the year with strong first-quarter results. Revenue was up 11% at $1.26 billion. Global beverage can shipments grew more than six percent, which included seven-percent growth in the Americas, five percent in Europe, and eight percent in North America. (Source: “Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. – First Quarter 2025 Results,” Ardagh Metal Packaging SA, April 24, 2025.)
The company improved its net loss to $5.0 million, or a loss of $0.02 per share. Adjusted earnings per share doubled to $0.02 per share. And its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) improved 16% to $155.0 million.
It ended the quarter with a strong liquidity position of $570.0 million.
Commenting on the results, Oliver Graham, Ardagh Metal Packaging’s chief executive officer, said, “Our first quarter performance represents a strong start to the year, with 6% global shipments growth and double-digit Adjusted EBITDA growth versus the prior year, ahead of our initial guidance.”
“Against the backdrop of a highly dynamic macro environment this performance is testament to the resilience of our business and the attractiveness of the beverage can as a packaging choice for our customers,” Oliver added.
Increases Full-Year Guidance
Ardagh Metal Packaging’s robust momentum in the current macro environment allowed management to upgrade its full-year shipment growth to three to four percent and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $695.0 million to $720.0 million. The increase comes on the heels of both improved underlying performance and recent favorable currency movements.
Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA are expected to be in the range of $195.0 million to $205.0 million, up from 2024 second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $178.0 million.
Quarterly Dividend of $0.10/Share
Ardagh Metal Packaging only went public in August 2021 and began paying a dividend in 2022, so it doesn’t have a long dividend history yet. But it has paid a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share for more than two years.
In May, Ardagh Metal Packaging paid a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, or $0.40 on an annual basis, for a forward dividend yield of 10.96%. (Source: “Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Declares Quarterly Dividend,” Ardagh Metal Packaging SA, April 24, 2025.)
AMBP Shares Jump 30%+ on Strong Q1
Strong first-quarter results and improved guidance for 2025 helped juice AMBP shares more than 30%. As of this writing (May 7), AMBP stock is up:
- 28.5% over the last month
- 41% over the last three months
- 26.7% year to date
- 5.1% on an annual basis
Trading at its highest level since October, the outlook for AMBP stock remains solid, with analysts providing a 12-month share price target range of $3.74 to $4.00 per share. This points to potential upside of up to 12%.
Should AMBP stock hit the $4.00 level, it will be trading at its highest levels since February 2023.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Lowdown on Ardagh Metal Packaging SA
Ardagh Metal Packaging is a pure-play listed beverage can producer with significant market share in Europe, North America, and Brazil.
After a year of transition in 2023, the company reported solid 2024 results and kicked off 2025 with a first-quarter earnings and revenue beat. It also provided strong full-year results and second-quarter guidance.
Ardagh Metal Packaging is able to provide strong guidance, because, in addition to its big global presence, it expects minimal impact from recently announced tariff measures. In North America, it has no can-making operations outside of the U.S.
Across its global operations, Ardagh’s suppliers, customers, and end consumers are all mostly local to their respective regions. As a result, its customers’ products are defensive in nature and beverage cans are typically resilient across economic cycles.
That’s good news to the whopping 228 institutions holding 18.98% of all outstanding AMBP shares. Some of the biggest holders include Canyon Capital Advisors LLC, BlackRock Inc, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
A far larger 76.04% of all shares are held by insiders. Together, insiders and institutions account for 95.02% of all outstanding shares.
