Vale SA Stock: 8.0%-Yielder Already Up 21% in 2026
March 9, 2026
Vale SA Stock Crushing S&P 500?
Some red-hot technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks are taking a bit of a beating right now. This cooling might give investors some motivation to look elsewhere for overlooked stocks. The sector that has been the best performer over the last 12 months, year to date, half year, and three months is basic materials, up 45%, 18%, 36%, and 26%, respectively.
Basic materials is about as exciting as its name. But, without this sector, we wouldn’t really have anything. It’s the very first link in the supply chain; no finished good would exist without basic materials.
The sector is essentially made up of companies engaged in the discovery, extraction, and processing of raw materials. This includes mining, forestry, and chemical production.
One great basic materials stock we’ve been watching for a while now is Vale SA (NYSE:VALE), a leading metals and mining play.
In fact, strong financial results and a special dividend have helping propel Vale SA stock considerably higher. When we looked at VALE in July 2025, it was trading at $9.91 per share. On February 12, the stock hit a new record high of $17.72, for a short-term gain of 79%. It continues to trade near that level. As of this writing, Vale SA stock is currently trading up:
- 32% over the last three months
- 62% over the last six months
- 21% year to date
- 84% year over year
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
About VALE
Based in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Vale SA is an industry juggernaut, with market cap of $56.4 billion, up significantly from its $42.3-billion valuation when we last looked at this company in July.
It’s one of the world’s biggest miners of iron ore, nickel, and copper. These metals are used to produce steel and lithium batteries and for other widely used applications. Other metals mined include gold, silver, and cobalt. The company has extensive operations in Brazil, Oman, Canada, China, and Indonesia. (Source: “What we do,” Vale SA, last accessed February 17, 2026.)
Vale is also engaged in greenfield mineral exploration in five countries and operates logistics systems in Brazil and other regions in the world, including railroads, maritime terminals, and ports.
Robust Q4 Results
Vale SA had a solid 2025, reporting robust sales performance across all of its business segments. In the fourth quarter, iron ore, copper, and nickel sales increased by five percent, eight percent, and five percent respectively. In 2025, sales increased three percent, 12%, and 11%, respectively. (Source: “Vale’s Performance in 4Q25 and 2025,” Vale SA, February 13, 2026.)
The average realized iron ore fines price was up one percent quarter over quarter and three percent on an annual basis. Realized copper prices rose 12% quarter over quarter and 20% year over year, while nickel prices declined by three percent on a quarterly basis and seven percent annually.
The company posted a fourth-quarter net loss of $3.8 billion, compared to a $694.0-million loss in the same period of 2024. The fourth-quarter loss widened on an annual basis due to an impairment of nickel assets in Canada.
According to Vale, it logged a $3.5-billion impairment on Vale Base Metals’ nickel assets in Canada, “triggered by a downward revision in long-term nickel price assumptions based on market estimates.”
Analysts were looking for a $2.7-billion profit.
On the plus side, core profits, or adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), grew 21% to $4.6 billion.
Excluding non-recurring items and other effects, Vale’s EBITDA reached $4.8 billion. Analysts had projected it to come in at $4.6 billion.
The company’s free cash flow (FCF) rose significantly to $1.68 billion, while recuring FCF more than doubled to $1.7 billion.
Commenting on the fourth-quarter results, Chief Executive Officer Gustavo Pimenta said, “In 2025, Vale delivered an outstanding performance, achieving or exceeding all guidances, while advancing strategic priorities that reinforce our long-term ambition.”
Pimenta added, “In our operations, we reached the highest iron ore and copper production levels since 2018 and delivered double digit production growth in nickel. At the same time, we continued to enhance our cost competitiveness, capturing structural efficiencies that improve our position in the global industry cost curve.”
Special Dividend of $0.66/ Share
Thanks to its robust FCF, Vale SA stock is able to provide shareholders with a big dividend. It should be noted that the company’s policy is to pay out 30% of EBITDA minus current investments. As a result, its payout will fluctuate. Vale also pays out a semi-annual dividend.
In March 2025, Vale SA stock paid a dividend of $0.37 per share. In August, it paid a dividend of approximately $0.35 per share.
This past November, Vale SA announced a special dividend of 3.58 Brazilian reais per share, to be distributed in installments in January and March of 2026. At current prices, this works out to roughly $0.66 per share.
The Lowdown on Vale SA Stock
Vale SA is a basic materials giant with diversified operations and a big global footprint. Interestingly, 2025 was a foundational year at Vale, with the company closing the year with another strong quarter, its fourth in a row where it met or exceeded its production guidance.
Management noted that, while meeting its targets was a big milestone, the company needs to advance its copper growth pipeline and build a sustainable and profitable nickel business.
Stronger results should of course lead to higher profitability and FCF, which ought to result in Vale SA stock making higher dividend payouts.
