Outlook for 11%-Yielding MNR Stock Bullish on Blockbuster Acquisitions
September 30, 2025
Wall Street Sees Upstream Stock Hitting Fresh Highs
It’s time to put the income investing spotlight on MNR stock.
The U.S. economy is facing headwinds with inflation on the rise, hiring at a standstill, and consumer sentiment near historic lows. At the same time, the S&P 500 is at record levels. And, on September 11, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 46,000 for the first time.
The fact is, stocks have been rallying, in part because weak economic data could force the Federal Reserve to announce two interest-rate cuts over the coming months. Lower interest rates typically encourage businesses to borrow and consumers to spend.
Unfortunately, investor enthusiasm has put valuations at their third highest level ever; trailing only the 2000 dotcom bubble and 2020 health crisis. It wouldn’t take much to spook investors and send stocks considerably lower.
Not that this is an inevitability, but when stocks are this overvalued, it’s always a good idea to look at companies with reliable, high-yield dividends. Those kinds of reliable payouts could help an investor ride out near-term volatility.
One great upstream company to keep an eye on is Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR). Not only has Mach Natural Resources been reporting solid financial results, but also its revenue is expected to top $1.0 billion for the first time in 2025. (Source: “Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR),” Yahoo! Finance, last accessed September 15, 2025.)
Most investors probably aren’t all that familiar with MNR stock, but that’s because it only went public in October 2023.
Mach Natural Resources is an exploration and production (E&P) company focused on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and NGL reserves across Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Wyoming. (Source: “Investor Presentation August 2025,” Mach Natural Resources LP, August 18, 2025.)
In its transformative 2023, Mach successfully completed the largest initial public offering (IPO) for an E&P since 2017. In December of that year, it closed on the $815.0-million acquisition of Paloma Anadarko Basin Assets in Oklahoma. (Source: “Mach Announces Acquisition of Paloma Assets,” Mach Natural Resources LP, November 13, 2023.)
Mach actually has a long history of exploiting acquisition opportunities. Since its 2017 inception, the company has closed 20+ acquisitions totaling more than $3.0 billion, giving it approximately 2.1 million net acres, more than 6,400 producing wells, and proved reserves of 347 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe).
$1.3 Billion in Acquisitions Doubles Production
Most recently, in July, Mach announced it had entered into two separate definitive agreement—one to acquire oil and gas assets from Sabinal Energy, LLC, and another to acquire entities owning oil and gas assets managed by IKAV Energy Inc.—for a combined $1.3 billion. The transactions were expected to close during the third quarter of this year. (Source: “Mach Natural Resources LP Announces Transformative Acquisitions in the Permian Basin and San Juan Basin,” Mach Natural Resources LP, July 10, 2025.)
The acquisitions:
- Nearly double the partnership’s production from 81 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d) to 152 Mboe/d
- Increase pro forma natural gas exposure from 53% to 66%
- Add approximately 700,000 net acres, growing total acreage by 33% to 2.8 million acres
- Establish a presence in the Permian and San Juan Basins
- Increase scale and strengthen Mach’s operations and ability to pursue future accretive acquisitions
Commenting on the acquisitions, Tom L. Ward, the company’s chief executive officer, noted, “With this step, we significantly enhance our scale and gain strategic multi-basin positioning, all while maintaining a resilient balance sheet. Most importantly, the transactions are expected to be immediately accretive to our cash available for distribution, underscoring our commitment to delivering long-term value to our unitholders.”
Q2 Earnings and Revenue Beat
Mach Natural Resources continues to have a solid year. The company announced that revenue increased 20% to $288.5 million. Wall Street was looking for revenue of $236.0 million. (Source: “Mach Natural Resources LP Reports Second Quarter 2025 Results; Declares Quarterly Cash Distribution of $0.38 Per Common Unit,” Mach Natural Resources LP, August 7, 2025.)
Its net income more than doubled to $90.0 million, or $0.76 per share. Wall Street was looking for second-quarter earnings per share of $0.53. Mach’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came in at $122.2 million. It generated net cash provided by operating activities of $130.0 million.
During the second quarter, Mach achieved average daily net production of 83.6 Mboe/d, which consisted of 23% oil, 53% natural gas, and 24% natural gas liquids (NGLs). It produced an average of 193 thousand barrels of oil per day (MBbl/d).
Commenting on the results, Ward said, “Just last month, we took an important step in expanding our operational scale and diversifying our asset base with the announcement of two transformative acquisitions. We believe these transactions lay the groundwork for sustainable long-term growth and underscore our commitment to maximizing unitholder value.”
Second-Quarter Distribution of $0.38/Share Declared
MNR stock has only paid seven distributions since going public in October 2023, so it doesn’t exactly have a rich history of payouts. And because its payout depends on earnings, it will fluctuate.
With that said, Mach has a disciplined business plan that puts distributions on the front burner. This includes maintaining a reinvestment rate of less than 50% of operating cash flow to optimize distributions to unitholders.
This allows it to target a peer-leading distribution to unitholders. Since 2024 alone, MNR stock paid out $4.49 per unit.
In early September, it paid out $0.38 per unit, or $1.52 on an annual basis, for a forward distribution yield of 11.18%.
MNR Stock Could Soar 64%
Despite posting solid financial results and announcing additional transformative acquisitions, MNR stock is down more than 20% from its 52-week high of $16.92. It also needs to climb 37% to hit its all-time record high of $18.40.
Wall Street is confident that MNR stock will hit fresh highs over the coming quarters, with analysts providing a 12-month share price target range of $20.80 to $22.00. This points to potential upside of 55% to 64%.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Lowdown on MNR Stock
Mach Natural Resources is an E&P company with a growing position across Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Wyoming. Its recent billion-dollar acquisitions are expected to deliver significant cash available for distribution accretion, which should help it maximize distributions to unitholders.
Speaking of which, 66 institutions hold 75.5% of all outstanding shares, with insiders accounting for 11.98%. Three of the biggest institutional holders of MNR stock include Goldman Sachs Group Inc, American Century Companies Inc, and Morgan Stanley. (Source: “Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR),” Yahoo! Finance, last accessed September 15, 2025.)
