Could 21.5%-Yielding Mach Natural Resources LP Jump 70%?
June 26, 2025
Geopolitical Tensions Send MNR Stock Higher
Strong financial results are one way to juice shares and dividend payouts for oil and gas midstream companies like Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR). Energy policy tailwinds out of Washington, DC, are another. So, too, are geopolitical tensions. And Mach is experiencing all three situations.
In the early days of President Donald Trump’s second term, he introduced a number of energy policies that were positive for the oil and gas industry. This included halting permits for onshore and offshore wind developments and resuming oil drilling leases along the U.S. coastline and in the Arctic. The president also declared a national energy emergency, which gave him sweeping executive powers to influence the energy sector.
Mach Natural Resources has also been reporting consistently strong financial results, with the expectation that revenues will top $1.0 billion for the first time ever in 2025. After the company reported $1.90 in earnings per share (EPS) in 2024, Wall Street expects EPS to jump to $2.07 in 2025 and $2.17 in 2026. There are high estimates of $2.41 and $2.47 EPS in 2025 and 2026, respectively, as well. (Source: “Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR),” Yahoo! Finance, last accessed June 17, 2025.)
Oil and gas stocks have also jumped on the retaliatory bombing between Israel and Iran. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is up from a May low of $56.00 per barrel to more than $72.00 per barrel. Should the attacks continue, crude oil prices could surge even higher.
Admittedly, most investors probably aren’t all that familiar with Mach Natural Resources, but that’s because it only went public in October 2023.
Mach Natural Resources is focused on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas and NGL reserves in the Anadarko Basin region of Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas, and the panhandle of Texas. (Source: “Investor Presentation June 2025,” Mach Natural Resources LP, June 17, 2025.)
In its transformative 2023, Mach successfully completed the largest initial public offering for an exploration and production (E&P) company since 2017. In December of that year, the company closed on its $815.0-million acquisition of Paloma Anadarko Basin Assets in Oklahoma. (Source: “Mach Announces Acquisition of Paloma Assets,” Mach Natural Resources LP, November 13, 2023.)
Mach Natural Resources actually has a long history of exploiting acquisition opportunities. Since its 2017 inception, the company has closed 21 acquisitions totaling $2.0 billion, giving it approximately 2.1 million net acres and more than 2,000 horizontal drilling locations.
Most recently, Mach acquired certain oil and gas assets located in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming from XTO Energy Inc. for an unadjusted purchase price of $60.0 million.
“Off to a Solid Start for 2025”
Following a strong 2024., Mach Natural Resources is off to a solid start in 2025. This includes net income of $16.0 million and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $160.0 million. (Source: “Mach Natural Resources LP Reports First Quarter 2025 Results; Declares Quarterly Cash Distribution of $0.79 Per Common Unit; Reaffirms 2025 Outlook,” Mach Natural Resources LP, May 8, 2025.)
During the first quarter, Mach achieved average daily oil equivalent production of 80.9 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), which consisted of 24% oil, 53% natural gas, and 23% natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company’s production revenues from oil, natural gas, and NGL sales totaled $253.0 million, comprised of 49% oil, 33% natural gas, and 18% NGLs.
Commenting on the results, Tom L. Ward, Mach’s chief executive officer, said, “Mach is off to a solid start for 2025. Our strong distribution reflects our ongoing ability to generate industry-leading cash returns. During the quarter, we reduced our already low leverage which further strengthened our balance sheet.”
Ward concluded, “Despite today’s volatile commodity backdrop, we are well positioned to transition our drilling program toward natural gas while maintaining our reinvestment rate of less than 50%. As we progress ahead, we will continue to optimize our business plan to maximize unitholder value.”
First-Quarter Distribution Jumps 58%
Mach Natural Resources has only paid six dividends since going public in October 2023. And, because the company’s payout depends on earnings, it will fluctuate. In March 2025, MNR stock paid out $0.50 per unit; in early June, it paid out $0.79 per unit, or $3.16 on an annual basis, for a forward yield of 21.5%.
70% Upside Potential with MNR Stock?
Despite posting solid financial results, MNR stock has been, for the most part, trading lower since last August. It took a big hit in early April after President Trump announced his global tariffs. Oil and gas stocks tumbled on worries about how a global trade war would impact the economy and demand for crude.
MNR had been slowing rebounding since then, but got a big boost this month after Israel bombed Iranian nuclear and missile sites and Iran retaliated. Rising tensions in the Middle East and fears that the conflict will escalate outside of the region have traders expecting crude to climb to $80.00 per barrel. A bullish JPMorgan believes that crude could hit $130.00 per barrel in a worst-case scenario. But no one wants that.
Still, even without geopolitical tensions, Wall Street is still bullish on MNR stock, with analysts providing a 12-month share price target range of $18.00 to $25.00 per unit. This points to potential gains of approximately 22% to 70%.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Lowdown on Mach Natural Resources LP
To summarize, Mach Natural Resources is a midstream energy company with a growing position in Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas, and the panhandle of Texas. Thanks to its strong cash position, it is able to provide unitholders with a reliable dividend.
In fact, management says that its “focus is maximizing cash distributions.”
Since its inception, Mach has distributed $962.0 million back to its members through December 10, 2024.
