10.5%-Yielding Ardagh Stock Up 38% in 2025
September 1, 2025
AMBP Stock Could Have 30%+ Upside Potential
Today, I’m taking another look at Ardagh stock.
The metal packaging market is experiencing solid growth. According to market research firms, the global metal packaging market was worth $150.59 billion in 2024 and is projected to hit $194.68 billion by 2032, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.26%. (Source: “Metal Packaging Market Size, Share & Industry Analysis,” Fortune Business Insight, July 28, 2025.)
This growth is being fueled by increased demand from canned goods, energy drinks, carbonated soft drinks, juices, and sparkling waters. And that’s where Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (NYSE:AMBP) comes in.
Based in Luxembourg, Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMP) is a leading global supplier of infinitely recyclable and sustainable metal beverage cans and ends to brand owners. As subsidiary of sustainable packaging business Ardagh Group, AMP is a leading industry player with the #2 market position in Europe and #3 share in North America and Brazil. The company also holds the #2 position in the global glass industry. (Source: “Second Quarter 2025 Update,” Ardagh Metal Packaging SA, July 24, 2025.)
AMP operates 23 production facilities in nine countries. It has annual sales of approximately $5.0 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $600.0 million. Of its total global beverage can sales, 47% comes from North America, 43% from Europe, and 10% from Brazil.
The company’s customers are made up of a wide variety of leading beverage producers serving categories such as beer, carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks, hard seltzers, juices, pre-mixed cocktails, teas, sparkling waters, and wine. Among its customers are industry juggernauts like Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO) and Anheuser-Busch InBev SA (NYSE:BUD).
Thanks to secular (long-term) tailwinds, the outlook for Ardagh Metals remains bright. In addition to solid industry growth, because it helps protect, transport, and preserve products in virtually every sector, AMP’s products are in demand throughout the economic cycle.
Q2 Results Top Estimates, Increases Guidance
Ardagh Metal Packaging kicked off the year with strong first quarter results, with that momentum carrying into the second quarter. For the period ended June 30, its revenue increased 16% on an annual basis to $1.45 billion. This included strong growth of over eight percent from the Americas and 12% from Brazil. (Source: “Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. – Second Quarter 2025 Results,” Ardagh Metal Packaging SA, April 24, 2025.)
AMP’s second-quarter operating profit was $82.0 million, up from $55.0 million in the same period in the prior year. Its net income was $5.0 million, or breakeven per share, up from $2.0 million, or a loss of $0.01 per share in the second quarter of 2024. Adjusted earnings per share climbed to $0.08 from $0.06 last year.
Adjusted EBITDA advanced 18% to $210.0 million, which was on the upper end of guidance.
Commenting on the results, Oliver Graham, the company’s chief executive officer, said, “We continued our strong year-to-date performance in the second quarter, with 5% global shipments growth and 18% Adjusted EBITDA growth versus the prior year, again ahead of our guidance.
“Global beverage can growth continues to benefit from innovation and share gains in our customers’ packaging mix, and we still anticipate only a minimal impact to our business arising from tariff measures announced.”
Full-Year Guidance Upgraded
Thanks to a robust business performance, AMP’s management has further upgraded its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $705.0 million and $725.0 million.
The company’s adjusted free cash flow expectations for 2025 remain unchanged at at least $150.0 million.
For the third quarter, adjusted EBITDA are projected to be in the range of $200.0 million to $210.0 million. In the third quarter of 2024, AMP reported adjusted EBITDA of $196.0 million.
Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.10/Share
Ardagh stock only went public in August 2021 and began paying a dividend in 2022, so it doesn’t yet have a long dividend history. However, it has paid a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share for more than two years.
In August, Ardagh stock paid out a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, or $0.40 on an annual basis for a forward dividend yield of 10.5%. (Source: “Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Declares Quarterly Dividend,” Ardagh Metal Packaging SA, July 24, 2025.)
Ardagh Stock Could Have 30%+ Upside
As you can see in the chart below, Ardagh stock ripped higher in late April on strong first-quarter results. And it was trending higher over the ensuing months. Despite AMP reporting another strong quarter and earnings beat, investors were not as impressed, sending Ardagh stock lower.
Perhaps it was a bit of an overreaction, as Ardagh stock is up more than four percent since then. The stock is also up:
- 58% over the last six months
- 38% year to date
- 30% year over year
And Wall Street remains bullish on Ardagh stock. Citigroup increased its target price on the stock from $4.00 to $5.00. At current prices, this points to potential upside of 31% with Ardagh stock.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Lowdown on Ardagh Stock
Ardagh Metal Packaging is a pure-play listed beverage can producer with big market shares in Europe, North America, and Brazil.
After a year of transition in 2023, the company reported solid 2024 results and kicked off 2025 with a first- and second-quarter earnings and revenue beat. AMP also upgraded its third-quarter and full-year guidance.
That’s good news to the whopping 242 institutions holding 18.95% of all outstanding Ardagh stock. Some of the biggest holders include Canyon Capital Advisors LLC, BlackRock Inc, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
A far larger 76.04% of all shares are held by insiders. Together, insiders and institutions account for 95.02% of all outstanding Ardagh stock. (Source: “Holders,” Yahoo! Finance, last accessed August 18, 2025.)
